After a vacation, I caught up with two of my primary news sources, the New York Times and The Economist. In the past weeks both have featured articles on a growing issue in America of which I was totally unaware--the severity, extent, and ramifications of the 2012 drought. Initially, I came across this article in The Economist, with its alarming graphic and data. Concerning reports released from the National Weather Service (NWS), United States Drought Reporter, and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) also prompted extended coverage in the Times. After the initial piece on July 19, further articles addressed the extent to which the drought could affect American food prices, infrastructure, and energy grid. The paper also ran an op-ed piece by Michael E. Webber, an assistant professor of mechanical engineering and the associate director of the Center for International Energy and Environmental Policy at the University of Texas, Austin. While the inclusion of the above links suggests that I recommend you read them (since they also have statistics and maps and photos and stuff like that), I'll also try to provide a brief synopsis of the situation (which will help me grasp the issue better as well.)
Essentially, over half the United States is facing drought conditions and one-third of counties (in 29 states) have been declared federal disaster areas. The NWS and Drought Reporter reports indicate that the situation could get worse, and even approach the devastating drought of 1988. (Farmers suffered terrible losses then, but are better insured a quarter-century later.) Nonetheless, incredible heat and lack of rain ravage an increasing majority of the nation; each condition compounds the other, and has its own expansive consequences.
Crops--particularly corn and soybeans--are damaged and yielding well below expectations; this, of course, affects the farmers as well as the supply and price of food made from these crops--including livestock dependent on them for feed (and more of it than usual, since half of US pastureland has become arid.) Although ranchers seeking immediate returns before conditions worsen will bring a glut of beef to the market and temporarily lower prices, the expense of feeding cattle is expected to cause a long-term increase in beef prices and a potential decline in milk quality (since the diet of dairy cows will be stretched thin.) The prices of other animal products, like pork and poultry, are also expected to rise. While the United States does produce over 50% of the world's corn and 40% of its soybeans, neither a global food crisis nor the high prices of 2008 is expected. Rice and wheat are still abundant worldwide, but given the scale of our output of these crops, I can't imagine the drought won't impact markets, industries, and consumers beyond our borders.
The effects of the heat and lack of rain extend well beyond those individuals and companies directly dependent on the land. Reservoirs and aquifers are dangerously low and drying across the country, straining community resources. Forest fires are more frequent and widespread than previous summers. While increased food prices will draw the attention and ire of consumers (although the American GDP itself will remain on its course of meager growth), perhaps the most widespread impact will be on the national infrastructure. Energy use often increases during summer, but with 2012 being the hottest year since 1895, the demand is higher than usual. And since so much of the energy industry depends on water (used more for cooling conventional plants and extracting fossil fuels rather than hydroelectric or geothermal production), the drought hinders the ability to supply that demand. The heat is even pushing construction materials, such as the steel rails upon which commuter trains run, beyond the conditions which they were manufactured to withstand. And increases in the occurrence and severity of extreme weather have demonstrated the inadequacy of our current drainage systems and the vulnerability of our power lines. As far as reconfiguring our infrastructure to adequately manage climate changes and emergency situations, we are in a period of 'assessment, not adaptation.' However, it seems increasingly urgent that we actually implement technical innovations and organizational solutions--such as those proposed by Prof. Webber. Unfortunately, corporations are likely to look out for their own best interest, while communities are beset by debts and operating costs which they can hardly manage as it is. Thus, mere replacement will likely prove a cheaper solution than improvement.
In the mid-Atlantic region, with our evening rainstorms and lush backyard gardens, the drought may seem as distant as any in East Africa or Australia. But the effects are nation-wide and inescapable. On the East Coast, we strain the grid and power plants with our energy demands; our rail lines are dangerously stretched and bent by extreme heat; violent storms down exposed power lines in suburban Maryland, just miles from the DC--where the House considers the next farm bill. Hopefully, the media will continue to cover this story with diligence and rationality rather than carelessness and alarm. Still, correspondents from the Midwest are right to testify on their experience and try get our attention.
As with the recent economic crisis (or the Great Depression, for that matter), this drought is both a challenge and opportunity: to create a more efficient and environmentally-sound system of energy production and use; to reform our agriculture industry so that it may better provide both goods and livelihoods while reducing damage to the land and animal abuse; to restructure the material and technological foundations of our communities to improve efficacy and sustainability; to enact better management and regulation policies at all levels of government so that the above initiatives can be implemented and maintained. And each of us will need to consider our contributions to society's effect on the environment, as well as our responsibilities toward creating solutions.
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